{"id":200,"date":"2013-04-15T20:21:18","date_gmt":"2013-04-16T04:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/?p=200"},"modified":"2013-05-01T20:26:34","modified_gmt":"2013-05-02T04:26:34","slug":"theres-always-another-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/?p=200","title":{"rendered":"There&#8217;s always another disaster&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Like taxes, we can always be sure that there will be another disaster. \u00a0 What follows are some data on 2012 but, as I write, the 2013 tally seems on its way with the increasing number of communities in Canada declaring disasters due to rising water levels from the thaw.\u00a0\u00a0 The sad, and somewhat irritating, fact is that many of these events are predictable with predictable consequences.\u00a0\u00a0 It is notoriously difficult to maintain sustained public (and, therefore, political) interest in high-consequence, low-probability events. \u00a0 However,\u00a0 something like the annual thaw flooding or the annual hurricane season should not have anyone, least of all politicians, looking wide-eyed in shock.<\/p>\n<p>We can debate causes and exacerbating factors but it is undeniable that more people are being affected than ever before.\u00a0\u00a0 Below is a graph from the most recent newsletter of the Belgian <i>Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster<\/i> (CRED) <a href=\"http:\/\/cred.epid.ucl.ac.be\/f\/CredCrunch30.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">newsletter<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 It\u2019s not the only source of such data (see the links at the end) but I like the graph because it separates the continents and shows trends over time.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_202\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/CRED.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-202\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-202\" alt=\"Reported Natural Disasters 1950-2011 from CRED\" src=\"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/CRED-150x150.png\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-202\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Reported Natural Disasters 1950-2011 from CRED<\/p><\/div>\n<p>While the CRED graph to the right bundled North and South America, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.munichre.com\/app_pages\/www\/@res\/pdf\/NatCatService\/annual_statistics\/2012\/2012_mrnatcatservice_natural_disasters2012_perc_distrib_event_by_continent_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Munich Re data for 2012<\/a> does not and shows how many natural disasters happened on our continent last year \u2013 roughly two events every three days.\u00a0\u00a0 I think it\u2019s thought-provoking that of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.munichre.com\/app_pages\/www\/@res\/pdf\/NatCatService\/annual_statistics\/2012\/2012_mrnatcatservice_natural_disasters2012_ordered_by_eco_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">10 most expensive disasters last year<\/a>, six affected the United States and nine of the ten were weather-related.\u00a0\u00a0 I also find it interesting that, for those six disasters, the insured losses were about half of the actual losses.\u00a0\u00a0 (<i>When did you last<\/i> <i>check your insurance coverage?<\/i>)<\/p>\n<p>Some additional references you might find interesting:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifrcmedia.org\/assets\/pages\/wdr2012\/data\/page31\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Graphs of reported disasters 2002-2011<\/a> from the International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies<\/li>\n<li>Munich Re statistics:<br \/>\n&#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.munichre.com\/app_pages\/www\/@res\/pdf\/NatCatService\/annual_statistics\/2012\/2012_mrnatcatservice_natural_disasters2012_worldmap_en.pdf?2\" target=\"_blank\">2012 Disasters map from Munich Re<br \/>\n<\/a>&#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.munichre.com\/app_pages\/www\/@res\/pdf\/NatCatService\/annual_statistics\/2012\/2012_mrnatcatservice_natural_disasters2012_perc_distrib_event_by_continent_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">2012 Continental share of events<br \/>\n<\/a>&#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.munichre.com\/app_pages\/www\/@res\/pdf\/NatCatService\/annual_statistics\/2012\/2012_mrnatcatservice_natural_disasters2012_ordered_by_eco_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">2012 10 costliest events<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Aon Reinsurance:<br \/>\n&#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.riskmap.aon.co.uk\/Political_Risk_Map.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">2013 Political Risk Map<\/a><\/li>\n<li>World Economic Forum:<br \/>\n&#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/reports.weforum.org\/global-risks-2013\/\" target=\"_blank\">Global Risks 2013<br \/>\n<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/reports.weforum.org\/global-risks-2013\/section-seven-online-only-content\/videos\/?id=2\" target=\"_blank\">Video on resilience special report<\/a><br \/>\n&#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/reports.weforum.org\/global-risks-2013\/section-seven-online-only-content\/data-explorer\/\" target=\"_blank\">Online risk-data explorer<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Like taxes, we can always be sure that there will be another disaster. \u00a0 What follows are some data on 2012 but, as I write, the 2013 tally seems on its way with the increasing number of communities in Canada declaring disasters due to rising water levels from the thaw.\u00a0\u00a0 The sad, and somewhat irritating, fact is that many of these events are predictable with predictable consequences.\u00a0\u00a0 It is notoriously difficult to maintain sustained public (and, therefore, political) interest in high-consequence, low-probability events. \u00a0 However,\u00a0 something like the annual thaw flooding or the annual hurricane season should not have anyone, least of all politicians, looking wide-eyed in shock. We can &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/?p=200\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,3],"tags":[11],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=200"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":212,"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200\/revisions\/212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/awaconsulting.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}