There’s always another disaster…

Posted on 2013/04/15 by admin

Like taxes, we can always be sure that there will be another disaster.   What follows are some data on 2012 but, as I write, the 2013 tally seems on its way with the increasing number of communities in Canada declaring disasters due to rising water levels from the thaw.   The sad, and somewhat irritating, fact is that many of these events are predictable with predictable consequences.   It is notoriously difficult to maintain sustained public (and, therefore, political) interest in high-consequence, low-probability events.   However,  something like the annual thaw flooding or the annual hurricane season should not have anyone, least of all politicians, looking wide-eyed in shock.

We can debate causes and exacerbating factors but it is undeniable that more people are being affected than ever before.   Below is a graph from the most recent newsletter of the Belgian Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster (CRED) newsletter.   It’s not the only source of such data (see the links at the end) but I like the graph because it separates the continents and shows trends over time.

Reported Natural Disasters 1950-2011 from CRED

Reported Natural Disasters 1950-2011 from CRED

While the CRED graph to the right bundled North and South America, the Munich Re data for 2012 does not and shows how many natural disasters happened on our continent last year – roughly two events every three days.   I think it’s thought-provoking that of the 10 most expensive disasters last year, six affected the United States and nine of the ten were weather-related.   I also find it interesting that, for those six disasters, the insured losses were about half of the actual losses.   (When did you last check your insurance coverage?)

Some additional references you might find interesting:

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Sudoku thinking

Posted on 2013/01/31 by admin

How many times have you heard the “try, try again” comment? Or, alternatively, variations on “if at first you don’t succeed, try harder”? It’s an approach to problem-solving which is time-honoured but I have to wonder how smart or efficient it is. I’m reminded that one definition of insanity is repeating the same actions and expecting a different outcome (as per Albert Einstein, I believe).

Recently, I met someone who spoke about using a Sudoku approach to problem solving. The imagery stuck with me and we chatted further. In essence, the point being made was that once one has determined that a valid or desired solution is possible (which is a non-trivial point), there is almost always more than one way to achieve that solution.

By the way, for those not Sudoko cognoscenti, a Sudoku puzzle is a square 9×9 matrix of cells, each containing a number between 1 and 9, arranged in such a way that all nine rows, columns and non-overlapping 3×3 matrices contain all 9 digits. The trick is that the puzzle is presented with varying numbers of empty cells (determined by the level of difficulty) and one has to determine the missing values.

The interesting thing about this conceptualisation of a problem is that reaching a deadlock is simply a signal to take a step “sideways” and come at the problem from a different angle or to try a different algorithm. When solving a Sudoku, such sideways steps are routine as one expects to make a certain amount of progress using one algorithm and then to have to switch tacks when the algorithm in use reaches the end of its immediate usefulness. This switching between algorithms is so routine that I doubt the experienced Sudoku solver even notices their switching approaches.

As Business Continuity or Emergency planners, we need to maintain and cultivate that mental agility. I think we are, inherently, optimists in that we believe we can deal with whatever comes our way. We need to underpin that optimism with “Sudoku thinking” if we are to reach our objectives.

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The BIA and a mid-process restructuring

Posted on 2012/06/02 by admin

Life evolves.   As does business.   And corporate structures.   And therein lies a challenge for Business Continuity.   How many of you have almost completed a phase of the continuity program when the groups you have been working with abruptly undergo a restructuring thus requiring a lot of rework?    While the constant change and evolution of corporate structures can be one of the more frustrating aspects of our field it is also, for me at least, one of the things which keeps life interesting.    That said, corporate reorganisations and mission changes can play havoc with our project timelines and delivery schedules.    It is, perhaps, ironical that the very people who plan for … Continue reading →

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Presenting data: entity relationships

Posted on 2012/06/01 by admin

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Very, very few business units operate in complete isolation within a company.   (If they do, I suspect they are close to being closed down or sold.)    Thus, to truly develop an impact assessment of what will happen when a given business unit (BU) halts operations, it is really important to understand the web of dependencies within which the business unit operates. The way I explain this concept is to talk about a flow of data or products.   In essence, there are those “upstream” and “downstream” of the BU.   Those “upstream” are those providing the BU with needed input (data or product) and are the BU’s suppliers who the BU will … Continue reading →

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The benefits of a deployable pool of volunteers

Posted on 2012/05/10 by admin

Last year, I had the amazing opportunity to work with many other volunteers in a large post-disaster recovery operation.   The disaster itself was a major event which affected a significant proportion of a town and its residents in northern Canada.   My role was to assist in the early days of the recovery effort once the situation had been stabilised and attention could be focussed on the longer term. I’ll probably write more about my experience as I found it quite fascinating and it has led me to do quite a bit of thinking about disaster response in general.   However, in this posting, I want to focus on the power of … Continue reading →

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Presenting data: IT systems

Posted on 2012/05/09 by admin

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As part of determining the core business processes, you should also have collected the information technology systems those processes depend upon.   How do you intend to present that information? One option is simply a list of systems and associated values such as the number of people needing a given system and the time-lines of that need.   While technically complete and of crucial importance to your IT folk, a tabulated list is not terribly interesting when presenting your BIA results to, say, your senior executive.   Especially, as is likely, it is a very long list of all your hardware, software and infrastructure systems. What follows is a suggestion for presenting the … Continue reading →

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So I’ve gathered my BIA data. Now what?

Posted on 2012/05/08 by admin

Gathering the BIA data can sometimes be intimidating enough that looking beyond to the reporting stage sometimes falls into the “I’ll think about that tomorrow” category.   However, at some point, you have to get there.   After all, you’ve invested a lot of time and effort in designing your questions, setting up the appointments and gathering the data.   If you wish to avoid leaving your stakeholders and sponsors with the impression that it has been a waste of time or, perhaps worse, a cosmetic box-ticking exercise, it is crucial that the reports be useful.   Even better is to produce a report which is both useful and intuitive. How much ability you … Continue reading →

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Cognitive commission, not omission

Posted on 2012/05/07 by admin

The title of this comes from a phrase in an excellent book, The Character of Harms by Malcom Sparrow, which I read rather slowly some time back.   (The slowness was due to a) my having to read it between many other books and b) it not being the lightest of reading – not the quality of the writing .)   However, I was recently reading his chapter on “Catastrophic Harms” and he makes the point that decisions as to preventive action need to be consciously made.   I think his terminology is far more erudite and elegant than my equivalent phrase, “default decision”, but we are addressing the same issue. The problem arises in situations … Continue reading →

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